Survivor Analysis 3: Switch Advantage for Kelly!

Once again, Fang displayed a very disappointing landslide loss during the fourth immunity challenge voting off the 25-year-old medical sales representative and a former Kota member, Jacquie Berg.

The first few minutes of the show was filled with nerves. Kelly Czarnecki was absolutely vulnerable after Kota's first Tribal Council where they sent little Paloma home. (To read the detailed analysis on why Paloma lost, you can read it on Reality News Online)

Luckily, an interesting twist happened and the remaining castaways were clueless about it. The goal: Every tribe member has to stand on a totem pole ranking themselves as who's the most indispensable tribe member and standing on the lowest pole is the most unlikeable tribe member.

There was no surprise Kelly was voted as the least likeable tribe member in Kota while Marcus the doctor, stood tall in the highest pole. The way I see it, Marcus deserved the rank number 1. He has been the strength and the mind of the Kota tribe in the previous episodes and he's smart enough to immediately build strong alliance with Charlie, Corrine and Jacquie.


Matty Whitmore was chosen as the most indispensable member in Fang. Next to him, is Dan the lawyer. These two alpha males were clearly proclaimed as the leaders of the Fang when it comes to challenges. What's a bit unfair is, Crystal was only standing in the fourth pole one step higher than Randy. I like Randy but he's been a whiner. He talks too much and most of the time, he's acting like he was invincible. Crystal was more of a tough competitor. She thinks before she speaks and she's a hardworker while in the camp.

After the ranking, Marcus and Matty were given the honor to select their first new tribe member. Matty chose Ace to be the first Fang member while Marcus picked Dan. Old school strategy! These captains chose strengths over wits.

"Ace picks Crystal because she beat him up so badly. Charlie goes with Randy and Crystal chooses Jacquie. Randy picks Corinne and Jacquie goes with Ken. Corinne has to choose, and just as I was wondering throughout the picking whether or not they had to do it alone or could get help, we see a huddle in which Randy is telling the others about how GC is negative and slacks off in challenges. Corinne follows their advice and chooses Susie (David Bloomberg)."

New Fang Tribe (RED): Kelly, GC, Matty, Ken, Crystal, Ace, and Jacquie.

New Kota Tribe (YELLOW): Susie, Marcus, Charlie, Dan, Corinne, Bob, and Randy.

The real stand-out castaway during this schoolyard pick was Ken. I might be bias in saying I like Ken because he picked Kelly (one of my impression favorites this season). Truth is, Ken was now learning how to play the game the way it should be played. He told Jeff Probst he's choosing Kelly due to her attractive physical physique yet there's more to that, Ken could use Kelly for his advantage to stay longer in the game. He's absolutely right! It doesn't matter if he's only taking advantage of Kelly, what's more important is, Kelly will be safe from the chopping board.

Sugar was the last and the 15th castaway standing on the pole. For this reason, she was declared as "safe" and she was again sent to Exile Island. She will act as the replacement. Whoever goes home in either tribes after Tribal Council, Sugar would take the spot.

Immunity Challenge: The tribes would play a lacrosse-like game on the water. Each tribe member would be on a raft and have a paddle. The castaways would paddle around the playing field, using the paddle to pass a ball from one tribemate to another. The first tribe to throw the ball three times into their opponents goal would win (Wikipedia).


Kota smashed Fang's ego as they raised their victory flag again. Their real hero is Marcus Lehman. He did all the hard work in paddling and in passing the ball. If Ken Hoang was the big name during the last week's immunity challenge, this time Marcus was the KING! He aced this challenge like he was only memorizing the alphabet.

In Fang, only three people were making castles (Matty, Ace and Jacquie) and their combined efforts were not as good as Marcus. Even the cocky personality of Ace couldn't outplay the competitive edges of Marcus.

Fang came home, feeling disappointed. The moment arrived where the "paranoia talks" sets in. Of course, the perceived weakest link was Kelly. Ace and Jacquie didn't like her. Matty wanted her to go home and Crystal went 50-50.

Seems like I was watching the nerve-cracking Nadal-Federer finals in Wimbledon 2008 while listening to their talks and conversations whether to salvage Kelly or not. If only if I was there, I screamed in front of their faces: "I WANT KELLY TO STAY. USE HER IN ANY WAYS YOU CAN USE HER BUT DON'T VOTE HER OUT!"

There's this insightful analysis made by Jeffrey Sadow's article entitled "Strategic Overview of Survivor, Episode 4: Poor Campaigning." He wrote,

"These original Fang members did get the initial part that they should knock out an ex-Kota member. From there on out, they botched it. First of all, their intelligence told them that Kelly was a marginal player – meaning that Jacquie and Ace were the real threats. This was accentuated by the understanding that, after two trips, Sugar had a good chance of having the hidden immunity idol and that (in their view) Ace was pimping both of them. Second, they knew that Ace was a good physical contributor, Jacquie was fair, and Kelly awful. Third, even as a result of this sendoff, they knew they could afford three more votes before they would have to cannibalize, and chances were that a merge would happen around that time..... So, the obvious target therefore should have been Ace."

Sadow is one of the writers in Reality News Online and if you want to read the full analysis, click here

I thought Kelly would finally say bye-bye but sorry Google but I need to say, Y-A-H-O-O! this time (LOL). Miracles do happen when you're least expecting it the most, Jacquie Berg the medical sales representative of Santa Barbara California, was sent home instead of Kelly who only got only 2 votes.


Survivor Gabon - Fourth Tribal Council

That was a big relief to me! Thanks to Crystal, GC and Ken for turning the tables upside-down with Matty on their side. I already lose Michelle in the very first episode and now Kelly, whoa! That's too much but she might still be on the chopping board next week if Fang will continue to lose. I heard she likes Parvati Shallow and unluckily, she's still not playing the way Parvati did in Cook Islands and Micronesia. Kelly really needs to do a lot of work before it's too late.

The way I see it, men got the upperhand in SURVIVOR GABON 9-5. Seems like another DOG can win this thing!

That's fine, after the gorgeous Parvati Shallow outlasted the rests in Micronesia, the men should now proved themselves they still got what it takes to be the next sole survivor. If a guy wins this season, hope it'll be Matty Whitmore, Dan Kay or Ken Hoang.

Still, it's too early for conclusions. The remaining castaways will still ride several rollercoasters, that's for sure.

COURAGEOUS EXIT in Survivor Philippines


The farmer girl, Vevherly, was sent home during the fifth Tribal Council in Ko Tarutao. Despite of her limping and feverish condition, Vevherly opted to stay in the game and didn't quit until the council's vote was tallied.

Although she's aware she was excluded in Rob-Chris-Kaye-JC alliance, she clings to nothing knowing she couldn't do anything at all when the tides are high. Not really the behavior of a survivor but it's a courageous move. Why keep on fighting when everything seems useless? Better let go and exit the game like you are still a champion.

Photos courtesy of:
www.cbs.com
survivorphilippines.com