Saturday, October 11, 2008

Survivor Analysis 4: Why These Castaways Survive and Won?

As Survivor Gabon continues to splash the primetime scoreboard, let's rewind the time a bit and understand why the previous castaways won the title of sole survivor. These analysis is written by David Bloomberg. If you want to print or read the uncut version, you can visit the link: Reality News Online


In the first season (Borneo), the best player ended up with the prize... Survivor’s Richard Hatch was the king of the schemers, the head of the plotters, the core of the alliance. He was, according to Kelly, like the Devil himself. Sean called him "Darth Gayder." He made deals to suit his own plans. He pretended to care about others while confiding in the TV audience that he cared little. He used his fishing skills as a weapon, withholding food when he thought people were taking him for granted. Polls taken after the show ended indicated that the TV audience didn't want him to win. At the same time, he helped make the show such a success for CBS. (Why Richard Won?)


Tina Wesson was the best player of Survivor 2: Australian Outback, though she attributed much of it to luck, and there is some cause to do so, though there is also plenty of reason to attribute it to her skills at dealing with people. Luck has shown its face in other series as well, and even Sandra, winner of Pearl Islands, said it played a huge role for her.


Survivor: Africa saw some people revert to the cluelessness of the first series, owing mostly to those who admitted they had not paid much attention to the first two seasons. Ethan Zohn, the winner, said that he watched the two previous series; Silas, who lost, said he hadn't.


Survivor: Marquesas showed us how to lose: By showing your hand and practically daring anybody to go against you, and by being obnoxiously lazy. Much of the reasoning behind Vecepia Towery's win stems from the irrational anger of several members in the Rotu 4 alliance who were tossed out by Neleh and never forgave her for daring to want to win the game herself.


Survivor: Thailand showed us that even people who read these rules and try to follow them, like Shii Ann did; have to also remember to expect the unexpected. Shii Ann did exactly what she should have if the situation had been as everybody thought it was. It also showed that a master of strategy like Brian Heidik can still win. though it sometimes takes a creative way of looking at the game to do so. By making several individual alliances, Brian set himself up to either succeed wonderfully or fail horribly.


Survivor: The Amazon reminded us that the best player doesn’t always win. Rob Cesternino was one of the best Survivor strategists ever, and I’m not just saying that because he read these rules and played accordingly. But in the end, he was foiled because he was too much of a threat to Jenna Morasca. Jenna won in a landslide against Matthew.All in all, Jenna did a decent job of scheming when necessary. She was not like Rob in that she definitely did not have her finger on the pulse of every person. When she was in a place of comfort, she pretty well coasted while Rob was always thinking, always trying to find the best angle. (Why Jenna Won?)


Survivor: Pearl Islands showed us once again that you can have the best plan in the world, but if you can’t survive the final immunity challenge, it just doesn’t matter... Sandra Diaz-Twine herself admitted, in her interview with RNO, that luck played a major role. But she did have some strategy in her willingness to sell her vote as long as it wasn’t her. It wasn’t terribly satisfying to most fans of strategy, but it won her a million dollars. Still, there was nothing to prevent anybody else from doing the same thing to her.


All-Stars showed us a few things, though much of what went on there has to be taken with a grain of salt because it was a special edition and almost everybody knew everybody else. Amber Brkich was not exactly thought of as “All-Star” material by many people when she was first announced as a contestant. Amber's strategy in All-Stars seemed to be somewhat similar to the one she used in Australia. She partnered up with a more obnoxious person who could drive the bus and take the heat. The first time she did it, Jerri was a bit too obnoxious and was voted off, thus taking away Amber’s shield. This time, Rob managed to stick around despite all the many strategic reasons he shouldn’t have. And that meant she could ride into the final rounds.(Why Amber Won?)


Vanuatu showed us to never give up, no matter how much the odds seem stacked against you. It also showed that if you continue to follow these rules while others around you fail to do so, you can still pull off the win. Chris Daugherty did everything he should have done in following these rules...


Palau showed us a few things. First, the biggest threat can still win under the right circumstances. One of those circumstances has to be that he is not simply a physical player, but also one with a brain. And as already mentioned earlier, Palau also showed us that some people still view Survivor as an opportunity to make new friends rather than a way to make a million dollars – and if you want to win, it’s a really bad idea. That's Tom Westman!


Guatemala, like Vanuatu, showed us never to give up. Danni Boatwright was a dead duck – the lone member of a losing alliance. But she never gave up. She jumped at a chance to save herself and took it day by day from there. She turned the game completely around, sending home the powerful and climbing up from the depths to the win. More importantly, Danni also showed that she knew the game was key, voting off friend Rafe to take the more vulnerable Stephenie to the final two for a better chance at the win.


Exile Island showed us how to survive when you’re not the best schemer and not the best at physical challenges, but you are the best at combining the two into a single person. Aras Baskauskas won by having bigger threats around him and knowing what to do with his position, while at the same time being a good enough player for the jury to recognize his abilities.


Cook Islands reminded us that while scheming and plotting might not win every edition, it still remains the most important aspect of the game. Winning challenges, as Ozzy did, is certainly another important aspect that can get a person to the finals, but Yul Kwon played the puppetmaster and won. It also showed that nice guys can finish first, as long as they’re also smart and willing to realize they can’t be nice the whole time because Survivor is a game.


In Survivor: Fiji, where Earl Cole managed to be a nice guy and make friends while still understanding that it is a game and friends may need to be cut loose – as he did with Yau-Man. He also showed how to direct people into doing what he wanted them to do without them even quite realizing that was what was happening.


China once again emphasized the value of having and enacting a plan, as Todd Herzog was a known schemer who still managed to pull a fairly easy win at the end. I think the Micronesia jurors will end up much like those in China – respecting good game play. After all, these are former contestants and fans, so they shouldn’t harbor the kind of ill will that led to Vecepia’s win, for example, as discussed earlier.


Micronesia reaffirmed the importance of both strategy and the social game, as Parvati Shallow emphasized both while eliminating emotion on her own part when it came to making decisions. She had multiple alliances that gave her a great amount of flexibility to go forward no matter which side came out ahead, and managed to do so without pissing people off so many of those who had been on an alliance with her even voted for her to win!

What Survivor Gabon Castaways Should Have Learned?

1) Make Machiavelli Proud: Scheme and Plot

2) But Don't Scheme and Plot Too Much/
Keep Your Scheming Secret/
Don't Backstab Until You Absolutely Need To

3) Be Flexible! You cannot simply tie yourself to one alliance and hope that it survives!

4) Don't Let Your Emotions Control You

5) Pretend To Be Nice/Keep Your Politics and Controversial Beliefs To Yourself

6) Don’t Be Too Much of a Threat

7) Vote Off: Weak, Strong, Weak, Strong


That left us with one question, who do you think will win in Gabon?

Photos courtesy of:
www.survivorfever.com

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